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Wikipedia:Five-million pool

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This is a pool for predicting the date at which the number of articles (as defined by the official article count presented on the Special:statistics) in the English Wikipedia reaches 5,000,000 (five million). The person who comes closest to the actual date is the winner (of eternal fame). The current number of articles in the English Wikipedia is 6,920,556.

The English Wikipedia article count reached 2,500,000 on August 11, 2008 at about 22:29 (UTC), thereby closing the pool. This pool opened on March 21, 2005, shortly after the 500,000th article was created.

This pool is closed. Any further votes will be reverted. 5M reached on 2015 November 1. Winner of the pool: User:Mark E.

Today

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  • Whenever it happens, there will be a huge announcement: "Wikipedia Hit 5,000,000 Mark Today" What do I win? CrazyLegsKC 01:00, August 4, 2005 (UTC)
I win too. Rentastrawberry 03:49, September 18, 2005 (UTC)
And then, the next day, there will be news that say "Wikipedia Hit 5,000,000 Mark Yesterday". You lose. --Joe Schme(ssages)dley 21:41, December 3, 2006 (UTC)
  • 2024 – December – 6 I win too. --antilived T | C 05:02, December 31, 2005 (UTC)
  • I win three ! The Procrastinator 00:10, January 11, 2006 (UTC)
  • What do you win for ?--Neverland 17:39, May 5, 2006 (UTC)

Day before tomorrow

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The day before the day after it was created

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1970

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  • January 1, midnight precisely. I mean, hey, there's at least a one-in-a-billion chance that something will reset the server's ctime just before the five-millionth article, right? So I have a very small probability of getting it right down to the second instead of a slightly larger probability of getting it to within a year tops. —Simetrical (talk • contribs) 05:20, May 7, 2006 (UTC)

1991

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I win!! :) Sango123 July 5, 2005 17:02 (UTC)

The first day of the rest of your life

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1999

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August 1 – The digital world screws everything else up, so why not? birdboy2000 22:11, December 17, 2005 (UTC)

12:00am [blinking on and off]

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Sadly, someone will pull the plug on Wikipedia and the clock will go back to 12:00am. IT'S DA...Ανέκδοτο 04:11, 12 September 2007 (UTC)[reply]

2005

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2006

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2007

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  • January 25 No particular reason – Hindleyite 21:08, March 4, 2006 (UTC)
  • February 29 – it's going to be a busy day – Joolz 21:10, May 23, 2005 (UTC)
  • March 14 – Pi Day '07! ~Linuxerist L / T 03:15, March 15, 2006 (UTC)
  • April 21 – One year after my first official edit! Acs4b 06:41, October 13, 2006 (UTC)
  • June 8 nocternaloxide 16:20, March 2, 2006 (UTC)
  • June 20 – As good as date as any. Wikipedia is one of the most phenomenal projects of this century... I could see it at five million. Of course, this is just a total guess. michaelb 21:00, April 5, 2006 (UTC)
  • July 2. --Gamingboy 17:27, March 12, 2006 (UTC)
  • July 4 – My Birthday! :) Michael Furdyk (and America's!--IAMTHEEGGMAN (talk) 21:16, March 4, 2006 (UTC))
  • September 1. --bainer (talk) 23:29, March 1, 2006 (UTC)
  • 6 November. My birthday. Trekphiler 03:56, 11 September 2007 (UTC)[reply]
  • November 18. →Iñgōlemo← talk 20:33, 2005 Mar 23 (UTC)
  • September 19 24.54.208.177 18:25, September 11, 2005 (UTC)
  • September 25 (The end of the world!) --IAMTHEEGGMAN (talk) 21:16, March 4, 2006 (UTC)
  • September 29 CCMichalZ 22:16, March 2, 2006 (UTC)
  • August 4 – My Birthday. -DesPeaux
  • October 13. --TBC??? ??? ??? 16:15, March 2, 2006 (UTC)
  • October 23 Gflores Talk 21:39, February 27, 2006 (UTC)
  • November 29 AlexR 01:02, March 3, 2006 (UTC)
  • December 10 – Who in their right mind would want to be sane? Cyner 23:07, March 1, 2006 (UTC)
  • December 12 – Ek7 21:33, July 3, 2006 (UTC)
  • December 19, Kostja 17:05, 2005 May 15 (UTC)
  • December 25, Joseph Solis 03:14 UTC, April 8, 2006
  • December 31 – I know this is not the right date. But within a million on this day kaiser matias 07:19, December 1, 2006 (UTC)

2008

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And they're going to give it to you on Christmas? --Ye Olde Luke 23:34, 15 November 2007 (UTC)[reply]
  • December 26 Nationalparks 02:08, May 6, 2006 (UTC)
  • December 31 Chris M. 14:40, June 19, 2006 (UTC)
  • December 31, 2000 hrs UTC \Mikez 08:57, 1 Apr 2005 (UTC)

2009

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I second this one. It will be September 15, 2009. John Titor told me. Sadly it will be bot-created. aliasd·U·T 14:19, 16 September 2007 (UTC)[reply]

2010

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2011

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2012

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I agree it will happen in 2012. It will either happen on December 21 (my 25th birthday) or December 24 (the day the Aztecs predicted the world will end. A documentary that predicted the ending of the world based on the Bible also said this date). --Ted87 02:07, June 30, 2006 (UTC)

2013

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2014

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2015

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2016

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2017

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2018

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  • 22 – 02 – 18 (Roy van Rijn) --217.195.241.2 09:07, March 2, 2006 (UTC)

2019

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  • The fifty-seventh day of 2019. --Berney 21:37, December 16, 2005 (UTC)
  • April 3, 2019. --Nomader 00:02, March 3, 2006 (UTC)

2020–2021

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  • April 15, 2020 ៛ Bielle (talk) 02:56, 1 April 2008 (UTC)[reply]
  • June 15, 2020, this was a tough prediction, but I think the middle of 2020 is the way to go. --Evan Robidoux 19:46, June 24, 2006 (UTC)
  • August 17, 2020, whereupon Wikipedia will receive perfect vision (and subsequently receive an asolute barrage of new articles, as I've also predicted that this is the date where Wikipedia will receive its eleventy-billionth post). Matt Yeager 06:14, December 30, 2005 (UTC)
  • May 15, 2021. 23:59 hrs UTC – If I'm right, I'll probably be dead before this day comes. :( Ryan 07:17, July 27, 2005 (UTC)
  • October 10, 2021, when the police snipers finally take me down. Proto 12:51, 10 Jun 2005 (UTC)

2022–2023

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2024–2025

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  • March 2 or March 10, 2025. Think about it, you know it makes sense. Daesumnor 01:59, March 2, 2006 (UTC)
  • July 10, 2025. Give or take 2 years, 3 months and 27 days. – Ghelaetalkcontribs 15:56, February 25, 2006 (UTC)

2026–2027

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  • May 2, 2027 – [[1]] (it will be my 40th birthday !)
  • May 12, 2027 on my 40th birthday (oops I will be 50 haha, oh I am an old fart!). By then Wikipedia will do datadumps to our brains every third millisecond.--Adam (talk) 02:49, April 16, 2006 (UTC)
  • On May 25 2027 will be the day.

2028–2029

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2030–2034

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2035–2039

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2040–2044

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  • 4 october 2040 it will be the 23rd article published that day and it will be the 5 millionth ever. (----)

2045–2049

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2050 or later

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  • Exactly 1 year after the moment we land a person on Mars. (please move this vote when we've landed on Mars :)) -- BRIAN0918  15:14, 22 Mar 2005 (UTC)
" Exactly 1 year after the moment we land a person on Mars". Jim Kirk will be President first.=] Trekphiler 03:52, 11 September 2007 (UTC)[reply]
  • Does "we" mean Americans or mankind?? (it may will be two different landing events)
    "We" refers to the squirrel population in Antarctica, of course. Sango123 July 5, 2005 17:00 (UTC)
Does a monkey still count? :) Smartech 02:53, July 15, 2005 (UTC)
Since people are technically just a breed of monkeys, yes. --86.130.24.206 15:12, August 28, 2005 (UTC)
No – technically people are a breed of ape, not monkeys. Both though a part of the primate group. David Ruben Talk 01:57, April 21, 2006 (UTC)
Why don't we just say:

When a lifeform from Earth intentionally lands themself or another lifeform from Earth onto Mars or one of its satellites.

--Joe Schme(ssages)dley 21:39, December 3, 2006 (UTC)
-- Isn't this supposed to be a place where you bet rather than discuss nonexistent squirrel populations from Antarctica ;). Dixonsej 16:23, 4 October 2007 (UTC)[reply]

2066

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  • March 14, pi day π Nillanilla3ee 19:22, 9 December 2007 (UTC)

2094

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2095

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  • January 3rd

2101

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Eternity

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  • I'm betting on the year ALEF_null+1, 12:01 (UTC+pi)

Never

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  • Whether or not Wikipedia will reach five million articles is one thing. Whether it should is another. It's reached the point where – excluding current events or news articles – almost every new article created for Wikipedia is pointless. It will be a local band creating their own page for their band, or something else of the sort. So, in other words, my answer is: Wikipedia will reach five million articles when ... well, right after it reaches 4,999,999 articles.

That wasn't funny at all, was it? Free-encyclopedia 19:23, 21 September 2007 (UTC)[reply]

  • It is not possible, The sum of all knowlegde < 5,000,000 articles --Clawed 05:12, 24 Apr 2005 (UTC)
  • Shortly after the heat death of the sun.  ALKIVAR 01:40, 23 Mar 2005 (UTC)
  • After pi is found to be a rational number. Sango123 23:07, May 22, 2005 (UTC)
  • When Romania denies having ever had yellow in their flag when it has yellow now. Barely There 12:07, 5 Jun 2005 (UTC)
  • When boys start being named Sarah. HellRaiser 04:43, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)
  • After blindness is found to be just a state of mind. Jesus Lover 05:27, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)
  • When a vandal named User:Willy on Wheels ON WHEELS!!!!!haha takes complete control of Wikipedia, and uses it to destroy every Internet connection in France, creating 5,000,000 articles in the process. --Mark J 19:09, July 17, 2005 (UTC)
  • When Essex becomes a independent country. --Weirdguy 06:42, July 19, 2005 (UTC)
  • At this rate, it will be after 2012. Gogo December 21, 2012. – RPharazon 03:56, August 12, 2005 (UTC)
  • When the Wikimedia Foundation takes over every company in the world, creating 4,595,151 articles in the process.--207.200.116.136 20:27, December 25, 2005 (UTC)
  • Not if the mergists have a say :) Deckiller 01:18, March 2, 2006 (UTC)
  • When the People's Action Party loses control of the government in Singapore. (nah, just kidding. real guess below) – splot 07:07, July 16, 2006 (UTC)
  • Isopropyl 05:57, May 2, 2006 (UTC)
  • Delete. Not notable. ;-) DarthVader 08:44, May 18, 2006 (UTC)
  • Never, Everytime Wikipedia gets 5 million Articles, Andrea Yates appears puts all 5 Million articles in her bathtub until they drown, and Wikipedia has to star all over again 12.183.203.184 08:48, May 29, 2006 (UTC)
  • Wikipedia will probably a) further deteriorate, alienating too many good contributors, or b) abolish IP editing, both alternatives with the result of a lot fewer articles being created. —AldeBaer 10:55, 26 May 2007 (UTC)[reply]
  • More precisely when Willy on Wheels passes his RfA. Cool Bluetalk to me 22:21, 9 June 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Willy on wheels has passed his RfA here [2]. Tazerdadog (talk) 02:00, 8 May 2013 (UTC)[reply]